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Prediction for CME (2025-06-15T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-15T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39518/-1
CME Note: An asymmetric, fast, and relatively diffuse CME from Active Region 14114 (N18E15) seen to the north-northeast in SOHO C2 associated with an M8.4 flare peaking at 2025-06-15T18:07Z; the eruption is seen as significant dimming somewhat to the northwest of the active region with post-eruptive arcades and EUV wave also seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and in STEREO A EUVI 195. The CME is likely deflected northwards out of the ecliptic, but analysis from M2M suggests that the southern flank may graze Earth early on 2025-06-18. Possible weak glancing blow around 2025-06-19T07:00Z distinguished by small, brief rise in velocity data as observed be ACE/DSCOVR and magnetic field component separation lasting until about 2025-06-19T16:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-19T07:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-18T06:46Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 32.42 hour(s)
Difference: 24.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-06-17T22:35Z
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